Hank Schultz, Senior editor, SupplySide Supplement Journal, July 24, 2026
The global omega-3s market, a sector deeply intertwined with both environmental sustainability and international trade dynamics, is demonstrating remarkable resilience despite a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and the cyclical impacts of climate phenomena. According to a comprehensive report released by the Global Organization for EPA and DHA omega-3s (GOED), the overall supply and demand picture for these essential fatty acids remains robust, underscoring their continued importance in consumer health and wellness.
Founded in 2006, GOED has established itself as a leading authority on the omega-3s industry, compiling extensive data on supply chains for nearly two decades and issuing market reports for the past ten years. In 2023, the organization expanded its research scope to include consumer attitudes, providing a holistic view of the market’s health. The latest report, released on July 23rd and spanning over 200 pages, delves into critical issues affecting the omega-3 landscape, with a particular focus on the health of the Peruvian anchovy fishery, the primary source of fish oil-derived omega-3 supplements.
Navigating the Aftermath of El Niño: A Market Correction, Not a Collapse
The report highlights the significant impact of the 2023 El Niño event on global fish oil stocks. El Niño, characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of Peru, severely disrupts the anchovy population, a crucial component of the marine food web. This phenomenon led to the closure of one fishing season and severe curtailment of another in 2023, impacting the availability of raw materials. While many suppliers and manufacturers had sufficient existing inventory to mitigate the immediate effects, the scarcity of raw materials resulted in a substantial increase in upstream costs.
This surge in raw material prices, however, did not translate into a decline in consumer demand or a widespread drop in product prices. Instead, the data reveals a nuanced market dynamic. In 2025, the total global volume of omega-3 ingredients reached 136,000 metric tons, a 2.6% increase over 2024. Concurrently, the market value saw a notable decline of 4.3%, falling to $2.53 billion within the same period.
GOED clarifies that this divergence between volume and value is not indicative of waning consumer interest but rather a "price correction." The organization explained in a statement accompanying the report: "GOED notes that this decline represents a price correction rather than a demand collapse; the industry experienced a temporary spike in refined oil prices due to the 2023–2024 El Niño, which limited the supply of Peruvian anchovy oil." This temporary price adjustment has since stabilized, with prices returning to more predictable levels by 2024. Looking ahead, GOED projects continued volume growth at an annual rate of 3-4% through 2028, signaling a healthy expansion of the market.
While the United States and Europe remain the dominant markets for finished omega-3 products, they appear to be approaching market maturity. In contrast, China has emerged as a significant growth engine, and GOED forecasts that the most substantial opportunities for future expansion will lie in China, Mexico, and other emerging markets. This shift in growth trajectory reflects evolving consumer preferences and increasing health consciousness in these regions.
The Shadow of a New El Niño: Preparing for Supply Volatility
Adding a layer of complexity to the market’s outlook, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a stark warning in mid-June 2026: a new El Niño event has formed and is predicted to intensify significantly during the upcoming winter. This development poses a potential threat to the already sensitive Peruvian anchovy fishery.
The Peruvian anchovy fishery’s productivity is intrinsically linked to the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters from the ocean’s depths. El Niño events disrupt this crucial upwelling process, causing the surface waters to warm and leading to the dispersal of anchovies. As a short-lived species, anchovies’ reproductive success is highly dependent on favorable environmental conditions. Consequently, a strong El Niño could once again strain global fish oil supplies, potentially impacting the optimistic supply projections made by GOED.
However, industry stakeholders are demonstrating a more proactive and resilient approach to managing such environmental challenges. Aldo Bernasconi, Ph.D., GOED’s Vice President of Data Science and the author of the report, expressed confidence in the industry’s preparedness. "There is a high probability of a strong El Niño (and the word ‘super’ has been used) later this year," Bernasconi told SupplySide Supplement Journal. "Such events can be a big disruption to supply, but they are short, so while we may see a challenging year, there is no reason to think the effect will continue for much longer. After the last event (2023-24), demand returned to growth in ‘25."
Bernasconi further elaborated on the industry’s strategic efforts to enhance supply chain resilience. "Besides the industry is doing a lot of work to make the supply chain more resilient," he stated. "For economic, regulatory and historical reasons, it has only relied for most of the volume on a small number of fish oil sources. A lot of work is being done to diversify sources and to optimize the use of existing fish oils." This focus on diversification and optimization aims to mitigate the risks associated with reliance on a single or limited number of supply origins.
Navigating the Trade Landscape: Tariffs and Their Ramifications
Beyond environmental factors, the global omega-3s market is also contending with evolving trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs. The recent announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, ostensibly stemming from investigations into the use of forced or slave labor in supply chains, directly impacts key fish oil exporting nations. Peru, Chile, and Norway, all major suppliers of fish oil, are now subject to a 12.5% duty on their products.
The timing of this new tariff regime, announced on July 23, 2026, means that details regarding potential exemptions and the full scope of its impact are still emerging. This added layer of trade uncertainty could influence pricing, sourcing strategies, and overall market dynamics, potentially creating additional cost pressures for manufacturers and consumers alike. The industry will be closely monitoring any available exemptions and seeking clarity on the long-term implications of these trade measures.
Broader Implications and Future Outlook
The GOED report and recent developments underscore a market characterized by both significant opportunities and inherent vulnerabilities. The persistent consumer demand for omega-3s, driven by increasing awareness of their health benefits for cardiovascular health, cognitive function, and anti-inflammatory properties, forms a strong foundation for market growth. The sustained increase in global ingredient volume, even amidst price fluctuations and supply disruptions, is a testament to this underlying demand.
The industry’s proactive approach to supply chain diversification, including exploring alternative omega-3 sources such as algal oil and krill oil, is a critical strategy for long-term sustainability and resilience. Algal oil, in particular, offers a plant-based alternative that bypasses many of the environmental and supply chain risks associated with fish oil, appealing to a growing segment of environmentally conscious consumers.
Furthermore, the increasing focus on consumer attitudes, as highlighted by GOED’s expanded reporting, suggests a maturing market where transparency, sustainability, and clear communication of benefits are becoming paramount. As consumers become more informed, brands that can effectively demonstrate the quality, efficacy, and ethical sourcing of their omega-3 products are likely to gain a competitive edge.
The interplay of environmental factors, geopolitical shifts, and evolving trade policies will continue to shape the global omega-3s market. However, the fundamental strength of consumer demand, coupled with the industry’s ongoing efforts to enhance supply chain resilience and explore innovative sourcing solutions, paints a promising picture for the future. The market’s ability to adapt and overcome these challenges will be crucial in ensuring the continued availability of these vital nutrients for global health and well-being. The next few years will be critical in observing how the industry navigates the potential impacts of another El Niño event and the evolving landscape of international trade, all while meeting the ever-growing consumer appetite for omega-3s.
